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Author Topic:   Here we go again - OPHELIA
mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-09-2005 05:20 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Ok GA - SC - NC & VA keep you eyes on her.
She'll make land by Tues next week
Sam

Hurricane OPHELIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 092025
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204657.shtml?3day


Hurricane OPHELIA



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ctastang
Gearhead

Posts: 1776
From: Virginia Beach, VA, USA
Registered: May 2000

posted 09-09-2005 05:43 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ctastang   Click Here to Email ctastang     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thanks for the wonderful news, Sam

Carole

------------------
Miss Stang - Arcadian Blue '66 C-code coupe (alias "Miss Cranky") M&M June '03 Ford Product of the Month
Anni - 99 Coupe, Crystal White, palamino interior, 35th anniversary stripes, 3.8 liter abused daily driver
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68 Coop
Gearhead

Posts: 2869
From: Mesquite, NV. 89027 M&M# 4256
Registered: Oct 2004

posted 09-09-2005 10:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 68 Coop   Click Here to Email 68 Coop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I feel sorry for you guys, 3 this year already. I would see about moving the Hell outta there, if any way possible.

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-09-2005 10:49 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
This is just our 1st,could be,maybe Hurricane.

You get use to get,have supplies on hand,we know the routine

Sam

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74merc
Gearhead

Posts: 1266
From: Demopolis AL
Registered: Jun 99

posted 09-09-2005 11:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 74merc   Click Here to Email 74merc     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mustangs68:
This is just our 1st,could be,maybe Hurricane.

You get use to get,have supplies on hand,we know the routine

Sam


If you're like us, you keep the stuff to cover windows and such nearby... lol

shortly after we took stuff down from Dennis, we were putting it back up for Katrina.

Better watch out, Ophelia isn't moving much, reminds me of Gilbert in the lack of direction.

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-09-2005 11:49 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
We actually get protected somewhat by the Outer Banks as most 'Canes use them as a target,but we'er only 50-70 miles as the crow flys so they only help so much.

Never boarded up a window in my life,its the water that'll get me
Sam

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GTRocks
Gearhead

Posts: 4072
From: Lusby, MD
Registered: Jun 99

posted 09-10-2005 07:55 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for GTRocks   Click Here to Email GTRocks     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Same here. The ones that get this far north are usually far diminished in power. We might lose power for a day or two and have some trees to clean up, but that's about it.

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GTRocks
Gearhead

Posts: 4072
From: Lusby, MD
Registered: Jun 99

posted 09-10-2005 08:19 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for GTRocks   Click Here to Email GTRocks     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Man, I just looked at the storm track. It's changed big time from yesterday. Those models are very confused!

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mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-10-2005 08:29 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Here's the current models.
http://maps.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html
she weaken a little,bouncing back and forth from TS and H.

Someone gona get wet

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Dave Gibson
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Posts: 9844
From: Norfolk, Virginia, USA M&M#166 MCA#47921
Registered: Aug 99

posted 09-11-2005 09:36 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Gibson   Click Here to Email Dave Gibson     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mustangs68:
Someone gona get wet

Yeah, Sam and it looks like us.


Dave & Terri

------------------
'65 Mustang Fastback
'66 Mustang Coupe
'02 Explorer XLT
Common sense isn't common anymore.

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-11-2005 09:55 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If Steve would let go of that high hanging near New England States she may move,but it looks like he's enjoying that nice weather he has.Until it moves she'll just sit,look for a loop then a turn toward land.

I'll go out on a limb here and say landfall will be sometime on late Tues early Wed near the Outer Banks,at a CAT 1 level then pick up speed zip over us,moderate rain and winds.

Or lets just hope so
Sam

[This message has been edited by mustangs68 (edited 09-11-2005).]

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mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-11-2005 11:09 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Dang we'er running out of names
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma

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mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-11-2005 11:45 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Looks like NC getting a head start,excellent!
Mandatory evacuation of tourist on Ocracke and srrounding areas.


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SteveLaRiviere
Administrator

Posts: 44921
From: Saco, Maine
Registered: May 99

posted 09-11-2005 04:20 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SteveLaRiviere   Click Here to Email SteveLaRiviere     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mustangs68:
If Steve would let go of that high hanging near New England States she may move,but it looks like he's enjoying that nice weather he has.

I almost feel guilty about all the nice weather we've had.

------------------
'70 Mustang Mach 1 351C 4V/FMX/3.25 Open
'70 Mustang Convertible 250 I6/3 speed/2.79 Open
'72 Mustang Sprint Hardtop 351C 4V/FMX/4.30 Trac Loc
'94 F-150 XL 5.8L/E4OD/3.55 Limited Slip
'05 Mercury Sable LS 3.0L DOHC 24V Duratech V6

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lawless
Gearhead

Posts: 486
From: Richmond, VA
Registered: Aug 2000

posted 09-12-2005 10:49 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for lawless   Click Here to Email lawless     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Looks like this one is playing "stump the weather guessers"

As long as this high pressure system keeps dominating the east coast, I find it hard to believe this thing is going to make landfall until Thursday night... if at all.

I think that it is going to sit out there going around in circles looking for waiting for warm, moist, low pressure weather... which I don't think will appear.

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-12-2005 02:04 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Weds night land fall Southern NC coast line move west of Outer Banks with the eye over the Sound.CAT 1 at 80 MPH, @982 Mb,then head Northeast out to sea,passing the Va coast by 80 miles (+/- 5) of center.
Will get rain amd some wind.

Thats my story and I'm stickin' to it.
Of course this is all subject to change


Sam

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lawless
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Posts: 486
From: Richmond, VA
Registered: Aug 2000

posted 09-12-2005 03:15 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for lawless   Click Here to Email lawless     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I ain't buying it Sam

NHC has been saying this thing is going to hit land for the past 5 days... but the high pressure systems coming from our Canadian brethern has kept it pushed off the coast.

There is another big high on its way down that I think will push that warm front coming from the west further north... leaving nice clear, dry weather around here and leaving Ophelia runnning around in circles for the time being.

That's my story.... for the next few hours. We'll see again at 11 PM

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-12-2005 05:07 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
National Hurricane Center had her just wandering around for the last 3-4 days,even made a loop,no steering currents to move her.

That High over the Mid-west/Ohio River Vally will breakdown and a trough will/has form,the high over New England will shift to the West some,as soon as that does she'll move,look for that late tonight or early AM.

Current forward speed to Northwest is 3 MPH,look for a change in speed in the next two or three advisories.

She may not get there when I said but she'll get there.The track will be west of the Outer Banks then a turn to the east out over the Atlantic as the trough and New England High shifts.

I still think she'll pick up that 5MPH and become a Hurricane before landfall.

I need to check the lastest projection my brother ran.

Sam

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mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-13-2005 02:05 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Now that was a nice rain band at 1:15PM,She just dumped on us for about 10 mins,then left.

Sam

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stang68
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Posts: 550
From: Buckroe Beach ,Hampton,Va.
Registered: Jun 2004

posted 09-13-2005 06:01 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for stang68   Click Here to Email stang68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
yes nice little rain band and the weatherman said it had nothing to do with ophelia...lol

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68 S-code GT
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Posts: 2958
From: Sayreville, NJ, US
Registered: Mar 2000

posted 09-13-2005 11:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 68 S-code GT   Click Here to Email 68 S-code GT     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Was hoping for a little rain up here! It hasn?t rained in over 2 weeks here. Ophelia is expected to pass NJ about 200-250 miles to the east.

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68 Coop
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Posts: 2869
From: Mesquite, NV. 89027 M&M# 4256
Registered: Oct 2004

posted 09-14-2005 12:10 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for 68 Coop   Click Here to Email 68 Coop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Not that I'm bitching, but why don't the West coast see more of these type of weather fronts that turn in Tornado's and Hurricanes??? Anyone got a guess???

------------------
William

68 Coupe
289
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Performer Intake
Headers/X-pipe/Flowmaster 30's
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"Restomod in Progress"

Good friends are hard to find, even harder to leave, and impossible to forget.

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mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-14-2005 10:46 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Rotation of the Earth Maybe
Sam

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mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-14-2005 10:48 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Are you listening to Jon Cash again
LOL.

Me and a buddy hare at work track that band for 30 mins on radar

Sam

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GTRocks
Gearhead

Posts: 4072
From: Lusby, MD
Registered: Jun 99

posted 09-14-2005 04:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for GTRocks   Click Here to Email GTRocks     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 68 Coop:
Not that I'm bitching, but why don't the West coast see more of these type of weather fronts that turn in Tornado's and Hurricanes??? Anyone got a guess???


Tornados and Hurricanes screw up Earthquakes!!!

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mustangs68
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Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-14-2005 05:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Two reasons, really. The first is that hurricanes form in the tropics, where (thanks to the Earth's rotation ) winds tend to blow from east to west. That means tropical cyclones?including hurricanes?in the waters near the United States almost always move toward the west-northwest. So when they form in the Atlantic region, they head straight for the American mainland. But in the Pacific, they head farther out to sea. However, that path does take cyclones over Mexico and Hawaii from time to time. And of course, their westward movement also takes them toward land masses in Asia.

The other reason hurricanes almost never hit California, Oregon, or Washington is that cyclones feed on warm sea water?preferably over 80 degrees. But the ocean temperature in the northern Pacific is usually under 75.

By the way, the words hurricane and typhoon both refer to the same thing?a severe tropical cyclone. The difference is that hurricane is used for storms in the northeastern Pacific, on the American side of the International Date Line, and typhoon is used on the western?or Asian?side.


Sam
(added)
Thinking back to earlier this year I belive a tropical system did move into SoCal.
Have to research that,not 100% sure.

[This message has been edited by mustangs68 (edited 09-14-2005).]

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Dave Gibson
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Posts: 9844
From: Norfolk, Virginia, USA M&M#166 MCA#47921
Registered: Aug 99

posted 09-14-2005 08:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Gibson   Click Here to Email Dave Gibson     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Hey Skip! Good to see you post. That hasn't happened in a LONG WHILE. Where you been my friend??? Working to hard and not enough play time??? Give us a shout some time.

Dave & Terri

------------------
'65 Mustang Fastback
'66 Mustang Coupe
'02 Explorer XLT
Common sense isn't common anymore.

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-14-2005 10:43 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
See that trough to the West of Ophelia,see how it deforming the West side and pushing her Northeast..watch the forward speed tomorrow,,she going to scoot out into the Atlantic late Thurs early Friday
Sam

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68 Coop
Gearhead

Posts: 2869
From: Mesquite, NV. 89027 M&M# 4256
Registered: Oct 2004

posted 09-14-2005 10:53 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 68 Coop   Click Here to Email 68 Coop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thanks Sam, I just saw where they are predicting it to take up to 48 hours to clear NC. Hope everyone comes out of this one OK.

------------------
William

68 Coupe
289
Edelbrock 600
Performer Intake
Headers/X-pipe/Flowmaster 30's
C4
8"rear/2:79gears
"Restomod in Progress"

Good friends are hard to find, even harder to leave, and impossible to forget.

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-14-2005 11:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Yes it will take until Friday to get out of that area,moving at 7 MPH she ain't covering a lot of area fast.
Reports I have got is there's a lot of beach erosion and low laying areas will be flooded due to the piling up of water in the Sounds.

Isabel cut two very wide openings in the Outer Banks and I expect the same this time.

Wave action is incredible,just pounding the beaches over and over,report of hiway 24 has been washed over in place to the South.
They'er in for a long night and day Thurs.

Sam

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mustangs68
Moderator

Posts: 24529
From: Buckroe Beach Va MCA#39406 M&M #12 Member Mustang Club of Tidewater
Registered: May 99

posted 09-15-2005 02:11 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mustangs68   Click Here to Email mustangs68     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If anyone has a clue let me know.>LOL

3 miles an hour forward speed E-NE.

I think we'll be saying Do you remember when there was and Outer Banks

Sam

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